The McKinsey Research Report
Starting in 2007, the McKinsey research team worked with leading experts to develop a detailed fact base estimating costs and potentials of different options to reduce or prevent greenhouse gas emissions in the US over a 25 year period. The team analyzed more than 250 options encompassing efficiency gains, shifts to lower-carbon energy sources and expanded carbon sinks.
Central Conclusion
The US could reduce GHG emissions in 2030 by 3 - 4.5 gigatons of CO2e using tested approaches and high-potential emerging technologies. The cost would be less tan $50 per ton, with the average net cost to the economy being far lower if the nation can capture sizable gains from energy efficiency. Achievement of these reductions would require strong, coordinated, economy-wide action that begins in the near future.
One complicating factor is reaching goals is that a gradual decrease in the absorption of carbon by US forests and agricultural lands will reduce achievements, and require greater GHG reductions.
Abatement Opportunities
- The largest option -- coal-fired power plants -- offers less than 11 percent of total abatement potential. The largest sector (power generation) only accounts for approximately 1/3 of the total potential.
- Almost 40% of abatement could be achieved with options that would generate positive economic returns over their lifecycle.
- Abatement potentials, costs and mix vary by geographic region.
Five Sectors offer Clusters of Abatement Potential
1. Improve energy efficiency in buildings and appliances (710-870 megatons)
This cluster of options includes: Lighting rtrofits, Improved heating, ventialation, air conditioning systems, Building envelopes, and building control systems; Higher performance for consumer and office electronics and appliances...and other options.
2. Imcrease fuel efficiency in vehicles and reduce carbon intensity of transportation fuels (340-660 megatons)
Most of the benefit would come from fuel economy packages such as light weighting, aerodynamics, turbocharging, drive-train efficiency, reduction in rolling resistance, and increased use of diesel for light-duty vehicles. Plug-in hybrid vehicels offer longer-term potential if vehicle cost/performance improves and the nation moves to a lower-carbon electricity supply.
3. Industrial Sector pursues various options cross energy-intensive operations (620-770 megatons)
A multitude of fragmented opportunities exist within specific industries: Equipment upgrades, process changes -- and across setors: Motor efficiency, combined heat and power applications.
4. Expand and enhance carbon sinks (440-590 megatons)
Increasing forest stocks and improving soil mnagement practices are relatively low-cost options.
5. Reduce carbon intensity of electric power production (800-1370 megatons)
Shift toward renewable energy sources primarily wind and solar, additional nuclear capacity, mproved efficiency of power plants and eventual use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies on coal-fired electricity generation.
"The theme of greater energy productivity pervades these clusters."
Improving energy efficiency in buildings and appliances and industrial sectors, for example, could offset some 85% of the projected incremental demand for electricity in 2030, largely negating the need for the incremental coal-fired power plants assumed in the government reference case.
Improved vehicle efficiency could roughly offset the added mobility-related emissions of a growing population, while providing net economic gains.
SOURCE: Download the full report at Greenhouse Gas Emissions Report 11.21.07